Will the Coalition last 5 years?

Will the Coalition agreement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats last five years?

I believe the answer to this question is yes! The reasons why can be seen in the polls where the Tories and the Lib Dems are declining and Labour is increasing and of course the full effect of the Coalitions spending cuts still to be felt in the electorate.

The Office of Budget Responsibility was predicting that by 2014 the budget would be in "positive" territory which would mean that the last 1 or 2 budgets could be used to squeeze some goodies for the voting public, and of course the economy would be better and the people of Britain would be feeling better about themselves and there the Government parties that got them there.

While the next election is 4 years away, and 4 years is a long time in politics, any attempt to ditch the coalition agreement and go earlier would now mean almost certain doom for the parties involved.

Firstly, putting aside the dreams of the Tory-right, it does not look like the economy will be in as good a shape as OBR predicted. So the Tories, who initiated and whole-heartedly supported the changes to the economy will be going to the polls on a promise of "let us finish the job" rather than "the job is done". This will be harder to sell and is best done when there are positive signs for the people to see. After all, it is hard to see a "budget deficit", but easy to see unemployment and rising prices.

On the other hand the LibDems can only hope that they will squeeze enough out of the Coalition-Tories to show their own members and supporters that the party did not sell their souls for ministerial cars. The LibDems will be trying to extract as much of their own manifesto from the government. This is after all a Tory-led Coalition and the LibDems were only their to ensure "stable" government. They did not really support all of the ideas of the Coalition at all. The LibDems will need as much time as possible to get the idea across that behind the scenes, they were working to "humanise" the harsh Tory policies, and that without them in coalition, the changes would have been even worse, and that the LibDems might actually do some good in government as well.

While it was clear that the two leaders, Cameron and Clegg actually believed in the  5 year fixed term for this government, it was also clear that this was not the view of many backbenchers and party activitists from both parties. The reality of politics and the state of the economy are such that neither party dare even think of going to the polls early because they know that if they do, then, well the people will have their say, and it will not be pretty!

James' View on Life in Britain: This Week in Westminster

James' View on Life in Britain: This Week in Westminster: "This has been a bad week for the Government in Westminster. The Bankers' agreement was, as Ed Balls called it, a 'damp squid' with no ..."